Artificial intelligence reshapes the American labor market – and young technology workers feel.
“It is true that AI is starting to appear more clearly in the data,” wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, in a note on Monday.
Goldman’s analysis shows that the share of the technological sector on the American employment market culminated in November 2022 – when Chatgpt was launched – and has since fallen below its long -term trend.
The impact was particularly clear for young technology workers. The unemployment rate of children aged 20 to 30 in technology has increased by almost 3 percentage points since the beginning of 2024, more than four times the increase in the overall unemployment rate.
This Spike is still another sign that generating AI begins to move jobs in white collar, especially among workers at the start of their career.
“Although it is still a small part of the global American labor market, we believe that generative AI will eventually move 6 to 7% of all American workers,” wrote Hatzius.
Goldman expects this change to happen during the next decade. The company provides that the impact of advanced unemployment will be limited to a percentage point of 0.5 “manageable”, because other industries absorb many displaced workers.
The report comes in the midst of increasing concerns concerning the weakness of the American labor market.
The American economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, well below 106,000 expected by economists, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Employment growth for May and June has also been revised heavily lower.
“Friday’s employment numbers have strengthened our opinion that the growth of the United States is close to the dropout speed-a pace below which the labor market is weakened in a self-reinforced manner,” wrote Hatzius.
Despite the impact of AI, Hatzius highlighted a larger short-term problem: a slowdown in the growth of the United States, which he partially attributes to higher prices.
Goldman estimates that real GDP increased to an annualized rate of 1.2% in the first half. Analysts wrote that they expect an “equally slow rhythm” in the second period.
“Although the relaxation of financial conditions and the collection of business confidence should support growth, real relating income and consumer expenditure should increase very slowly, not only because of the weakness of employment growth, but also because most of the passing passes at consumer prices are still in advance on us,” Hatzius wrote.
Technological leaders warned a job cliff induced by AI. In May, the anthropogenic CEO Dario Amodei said that AI could eliminate 50% of entry -level jobs and white passes Over the next five years.
