Artificial intelligence has become the favorite word in America’s favorite fashion – but the gain has not yet arrived, according to Goldman Sachs.
In the second quarter, a record of 58% of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI on their results calls, Goldman analysts wrote in a ticket on Thursday.
Companies are quick to boast new AI tools for customer support, software coding and marketing, but “the share of companies quantify the impact of AI on profits today remains limited”, they wrote.
Few companies linked directly to the AI to profits, echoing an McKinsey survey showing more than 80% of companies, said that generating AI has not significantly affected their net profit.
However, that has not slowed down the history of love from the stock market with AI.
The actions of companies exposed to AI increased by 17% this year following an increase of 32% last year, according to Goldman’s Analysis.
THE S&P 500 Now exchange at one of its most expensive levels of all time – although it is still below the summits of the Dot -Com bubble and the technological boom of 2021, Goldman analysts said.
The 4 phases of IA trade
To give meaning to the place where the market is – and what could then come – the bank maps the IA trade in four stages.
Phase 1 was motivated by Nvidia, the flea manufacturer supplying AI models.
Phase 2, where markets are now, is powered by hyperscalers: Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta and Oracle. Together, they should spend $ 368 billion in fixed assets in 2025, compared to 239 billion dollars in 2024 and $ 154 billion in 2023.
This investment wave has lifted semiconductor manufacturers, electricity suppliers and other infrastructure actions.
However, the following two phases – compatible income for software companies in phase 3 and wide productivity gains in all industries in phase 4 – remain uncertain.
Phase 3, in which companies integrate AI into products to stimulate sales, is more delicate. Some investors fear that AI will interfere with software companies as a service by reducing prices and reducing barriers for new competitors. Investors would likely await clear evidence from profits before adopting these actions.
“So that the native AI companies to take part in SaaS companies, the AI product must be significantly and significantly cheaper than the holder, and SaaS companies continue to progress with their own products compatible with AI,” they wrote.
Phase 4 is the boom of productivity promised for a long time.
Currently, Goldman says that the American economy is still in the “first rounds” of the adoption of the AI. The use is higher in large companies and in industries such as information and finance.
The risk, warns Goldman, is that the beatenic is too far away before reality.
If IA expenses returned to 2022 levels, Goldman estimates that it would shave $ 1 Billion of 2026 sales forecasts – and would wipe 15% to 20% reduction on the value of the S&P 500.
