Bitcoin is struggling to stage a significant recovery following last month’s plunge, with signs of fatigue continuing to mount across crypto markets.
The token briefly topped $107,000 on Monday before falling back below $105,000, underscoring the fragility of sentiment after a selloff that wiped billions of market value. The slowdown has been fueled in part by large holders making profits near this year’s highs and by lingering concern that followed selloffs in early October.
The momentum has not yet returned. Interest open for Bitcoin Perpetual futures are hovering around $68 billion, well below the $94 billion high seen last month, while funding rates – a measure of leveraged positioning – remain stable.
Flows into exchange-traded funds also show little enthusiasm. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs attracted just $1 million in net inflows on Monday, even as stocks and credit rallied after Washington decided to end the government shutdown.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains stuck below its 200-day moving average, now near $110,000 – a threshold that analysts see as the key to any sustainable upward movement. Bitcoin has lost about $340 billion in market value since a surprise announcement by Donald Trump on tariffs triggered record selloffs on October 10.
Despite gains for the year, Bitcoin is lagging gold and tech stocks, making it vulnerable to turnover from momentum-driven investors. Crypto assets rose slightly alongside other risk assets following signs of progress in Washington, but the overall tone remains cautious.
Here’s what market participants have to say about volatile trading.
Georges Mandrès, senior trader at XBTO Trading: This looks like a dead cat bounce. Stocks are trading on a risk-on basis, with hopes that the reopening of the U.S. government could further fuel the recovery. In the crypto space, the sentiment is different at the moment, as the narrative around OG whale buyers (early Bitcoin), selling a significant amount of coins, has received a lot of attention. This supply, combined with premium pressure on digital asset treasury companies and a lack of new money entering the space as indicated by ETF inflows, is affecting risk sentiment.
Tony Sycamore, analyst, IG Australia: I think the most notable feature over the last 24 hours is that Bitcoin has followed the rise in risk assets after this correlation was broken last month. This correlation would have to hold for more than one session to say that the recent period of dislocation is over. But positive signs nonetheless. The other point is that technically I could argue that the correction from the high of $126,272 is complete to the recent low of $98,898 and the uptrend has resumed. A sustained move above the 200-day moving average at around $110,000 would significantly increase conviction in this view.
Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst, FxPro: The crypto market cap fell 1.1%, cooling after an impressive rise in the first half of Monday. The 50-day moving average near $3.62 trillion acted as technical resistance, and the market’s rise stopped at $3.6 trillion. Despite Monday’s impressive rise, the market may be forming a new lower local maximum, continuing the downward trend that began a little over a month ago. The market is clearly not ready to swing into frenzied optimism, continuing to take profits once growth impulses are realized. Reducing support from corporate buyers is having an impact.
Rachael Lucas, analyst at BTC Markets: The recent crypto price rally looks like a classic short-covering rally, layered with a touch of institutional FOMO. Bitcoin bounced off key support at the 50-week SMA around $103,000 after testing a low near $98,900 and is now eyeing resistance at $110,400. If it exceeds this figure, we could see a rise between $115,600 and $118,000.
On the other hand, $103,000 remains a critical structural level. A break below could open the door to $86,000, with deeper support at US$82,000, aligned with the 100-week SMA. Any slip below these zones could reignite selling pressure.
