The global race for artificial intelligence (AI) remains one of the most hotly contested areas of international competition. Few would bet on an eventual winner today, but current trends suggest three possible scenarios we should consider.
In the first scenario, the AI world is dominated by the United States and China. While the United States still has the technological advantage, China is rapidly closing in and vying with the United States for leadership in many key areas of AI prowess.
According to Stanford University AI Index Report 2025a global comparative study of AI performance, the United States leads in terms of the number of major AI models and investment levels, while China is significantly ahead in terms of AI publications and patents granted. What is more worrying for the United States, however, is that technical performance metrics for Chinese AI models have improved significantly in recent years and are within striking distance of U.S.-based models.
What could prove even more decisive than technology in the long term are the different business models that underpin the development of AI in each country. China relies largely on a state-led investment model, capable of mobilizing resources, technology and capital in pursuit of national strategic objectives. The main constraint has been its access to high-end chips, but it is rapidly strengthening its capabilities in this area and, furthermore, the example of Deep search shows that it is possible to creatively manage these constraints.
In contrast, the United States relies on a powerful network of tech titans, venture capital, and government support. Yet concerns are growing about potential flaws in the U.S. model, including the emergence of a tech boom bubble and the risks inherent in relying on complex debt schemes to finance data center expansion.
The second scenario, which could emerge in the context of a possible collapse of the AI bubble, is the rise of a tripolar AI world in which the European Union gains more influence through its ethical approach to AI development.
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China creates analog AI chip that would be 1,000 times faster than Nvidia GPU
China creates analog AI chip that would be 1,000 times faster than Nvidia GPU
