Meta’s 5-gigawatt “Hyperion” data center under construction in Richland Parish, Louisiana, January 9, 2026.
Meta
The popular narrative that artificial intelligence is the engine that keeps the U.S. economy alive appears exaggerated, according to recent analyses.
The AI boom has reshaped stock market valuations, driven large investments and record bond issuances to finance data centers, and heavily influenced gross domestic product, or GDP, particularly in early 2025. This has led many economists and market participants to suggest Investment in AI has been the savior of an otherwise stagnant national economy.
However, a January report from US economic strategist Prajakta Bhide of MRB Partners reveals that consumption was the most crucial driver of US GDP growth last year, which is usually the case during economic expansions. AI-related capital spending is the second biggest driver, she said.
“AI is an important part of the growth story, but it’s not the only part of the growth story. It’s a narrative that goes around that if we hadn’t had the investments in AI, GDP would have fallen last year. And that’s just not true,” Bhide said in an interview with CNBC. “However, it is the American consumer who continues to drive the expansion.”
Bhide found that without making any adjustments for imports, AI-related components appear to have added about 90 basis points, or 0.9%, to real GDP growth on average between the first and third quarters of 2025, or just under 40% of average real GDP growth over the period. After adjusting for real imports of computers, peripherals and parts, semiconductors and related devices, and telecommunications equipment – or AI-related equipment – the average net contribution of AI-related investments is lower, between 40 and 50 basis points, or about 20 to 25 percent of real GDP growth excluding these imports between the first and third quarters.
GDP is made up of four components: consumption, investment, public spending and net exports. Imports do not count since they measure domestic production. Since much of the high-tech equipment is imported, the GDP value of AI is lower than one might think, Bhide said.
Additionally, even though data centers grab the headlines, she found that it was investments in software and computers that made AI’s biggest contributions to GDP growth in 2025.
“While a negative shock to optimism around AI implies a risk to GDP growth, the more realistic (and smaller) estimate of AI’s impact on growth after adjusting for imports dispels the popular notion that the U.S. economy would falter without it,” Bhide wrote in the Jan. 8 report. “Without an AI boom, GDP growth would certainly have been lower last year, but there would also have been fewer imports, so overall real growth would still have been decent, above 1.5%, thanks to strong personal consumption.”
In December, Bespoke Investment Group also dispelled notions of AI’s contribution to GDP in a statement. post onpublishing a chart titled: “A Unique First Quarter Created Vastly Overestimated Perceptions of ‘AI’s Share of the Economy’.”
The firm found that in the second and third quarters of 2025, categories related to AI spending accounted for only 15% of quarterly GDP growth, with their share of overall GDP below 5% overall.
There is no official final figure yet for US GDP growth in 2025 as annual revisions are released later, and quarterly results show a mixed picture in a year dominated by strong investment in AI, consumer demand and headwinds such as volatility in US tariff policies.
Real GDP grew at a much higher-than-expected annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, also higher than expected. At the same time, first-quarter GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.3%, marking the first quarter of negative growth since the first quarter of 2022.
Support for a future resilient economy
Bhide’s research highlights the importance of consumer spending as a major component of economic expansion. Looking ahead, she expects resilient consumption to continue in 2026 despite slower income growth and an increasing concentration of wealth among America’s highest earners.
“You get some fiscal support, which kind of offsets the fact that overall income growth may not be as strong as last year. … The American consumer is still, in our view, in good shape,” Bhide told CNBC.
“The argument that only the rich are driving consumption and that somehow makes consumption vulnerable… we don’t find much evidence for that. I don’t think weakening consumption is a cyclical risk,” she added.
Bhide expects this year’s economic growth will also be supported by new investments in AI, rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a stabilization of the U.S. unemployment rate, helped by the collapse in immigration. She remains attentive to quarterly productivity statistics and the pace of job creation.
