Bitcoin holds $110,000, but traders are simply betting $1.15 billion on a crash to $104,000


Bitcoin Institutional traders bet more than $1.15 billion on downside protection in the past 24 hours, with puts accounting for 28% of total market trading even as Bitcoin held more than $110,000.

Greeks live reported Trading was concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money puts for this week and month, with a trading range of $104,000 to $108,000 forming the dense zone.

Market skewness has turned deeply negative, with a short-term gap comparable to October 11 levels immediately after the $19 billion liquidation crash.

Greekslive said: “The options market, especially large players such as market makers, are experiencing a high degree of panic over the latter market decline, even approaching the sentiment after the general market collapse on the 11th.

The defensive positioning comes as Bitcoin trades above $110,000, down 1% but holding above a key psychological support level in that range.

Source: TradingView

According to Coinalyze, total open interest across all Bitcoin derivatives stands at $33.0 billion, with perpetual contracts accounting for $30.9 billion and futures accounting for $2.2 billion. Open interest decreased by 1.67% in 24 hours.

Earlier today, Onchain Lens shared blockchain records showing that a Bitcoin whale transferred 2,000 BTC, worth around $222 million, to 51 new addresses on Thursday.

The coins were spread across several new wallets, with 50 addresses receiving around 37.5 BTC each and one receiving 121 BTC.

Such migrations are common among large holders who are looking for better privacy or updated wallet formats, rather than panicking due to the ongoing massive liquidation.

Speaking to Cryptonews, Andreas Brekken, founder of SideShift.ai, noted that the ongoing liquidation primarily targets “everyone who combined the two deadliest substances in crypto, shitcoins and leverage.”

He added that “Traders looking to benefit from an alternate season need to find pieces that fit the income meta and occupy their place. There is no safe amount of leverage on coins that can reach zero.

Bearish sentiment extends beyond options markets.

Lookonchain data also shows a trader opened a short position of 3,440 BTC worth about $392 million, already sitting on $5.7 million in unrealized gains.

Two other top traders created short books worth nearly $180 million on BTC, ETH, SOL, and DOGE.

Social Media Reports claimed a whale that they tagged”A Trump Insider” opened another Bitcoin short of $120 million to $127 million at $111,386.

This narrative has particularly gained traction amid increased speculation about upcoming Trump announcements that could potentially impact markets.

Currently, Binance leads open exchanges with $11.5 billion, followed by Bybit with $7.0 billion, Huobi with $4.3 billion, and OKX with $3.6 billion.

Deribit, which specializes in options, has $2.7 billion, while Hyperliquid has $2.4 billion.

Source: Coinalyse

The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence, with price making higher highs while momentum is making lower highs, a technical warning signal that often precedes major corrections, according to analyst Ali Martinez.

Source: X/@ali_charts

The descending trendline connecting the RSI peaks throughout 2024-2025 shows that each price increase occurred with less momentum strength.

Bitcoin is trading between long-term parabolic support structures and resistance structures, with current positioning suggesting neither an imminent collapse nor a parabolic acceleration.

The monthly charts also reveal that the 4-year halving cycle could evolve as the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing shifts the market structure from supply-driven to liquidity-driven dynamics.

Analyst Ted Pillows suggests that “the 4-year cycle of $BTC is most likely over,” noting “it was never about a 4-year cycle but about liquidity.”

The $104,000 level, where put options are concentrated, represents a decline of approximately 7.3% from current levels and aligns with recent liquidation event lows around $102,000.

Currently, Bitcoin is facing a likely consolidation between $105,000 and $120,000.

The $104,000 level represents a critical test where Bitcoin finds support and stabilizes or breaks through deeper correction zones around the MVRV fair value of $96,500.

An extended period for reaching new all-time highs appears likely, with 2026 potentially representing a more realistic peak than December 2025 if liquidity conditions develop as expected.

Read the original story Bitcoin holds $110,000, but traders are simply betting $1.15 billion on a crash to $104,000 by Anas Hassan on Cryptonews.com

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