The role of the US dollar as a pre -eminent world currency is under pressure. BRICS lovers (the savings group that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) hope to move it. The Mar-A-Lago reflection bouble hoped to decrease the international role of the dollar. Russia and Iran have made alternative arrangements to circumvent American sanctions. China plans to internationalize the renminbi. Now, some argue that digital currencies – Bitcoin, Stablecoins or one issued by central banks – will erode the role of the dollar.
Banks have traditionally dominated the international payment system, achieving a well -stored profit by indencing a tiny fraction of each transaction when it passes into their hands. Noncans have worked in the payment system by offering additional services, offering credit or convenience. Amex, Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay, Wise, Afterpay, Alipay and WeChat have all found a niche.
The Stablecoins meet the requirements of payments much better than Bitcoin, although so far, they only represent a tenth of the total Bitcoin value.
But the complex banking system is still at the heart of international transfers, the dollar playing a key role, because the conversion between the currencies (for example, from Renminbi to Euro) is effectively implemented via a two -step transaction using the Dollar market deep to intermediary these currencies. Around 88% of international transactions Involve the US dollar. Fast makes secure messaging, Fedwire and Chips Put the legs in dollars and a corresponding network of banks complete the transfer.
Bitcoin has exercised a role in anonymous illicit transactions (more practical than cash suitcases) for those who wish to avoid an official examination, but are not attractive for legitimate payments. It is uncertain in value, expensive to transfer, embarrassing and can be a Ponzi scheme.
Stable – a digital currency with a fixed value and supported by assets as well as the bonds of the Treasury – are promoted as a means of payment, in particular for international transactions. The Stablecoins meet the requirements of payments much better than Bitcoin, although so far, they only represent a tenth of the total Bitcoin value. They offer the prospect of becoming a platform for technological innovation such as programmable payments – conditional payments to other events, for example, as the arrival of an import shipment. If the sender and the receiver used the same stablescoins (for example, the two use dollars of attachment), the direct transfer between borders would be possible, bypassing the transfer processes based on the bank.
Despite this, Stablecoins cannot yet face the complexity of international transfers. Transfers are often between parties in different currencies, different institutions and different legal environments. In addition, secure transfers must resist the tireless ingenuity of fraudsters. Stablecoins do not offer much incitement to holders. They pay no interest and do not have the implicit insurance of banks or common funds for the money market. They don’t have the “SingleOfficial dollar – a cash dollar or on a bank account is exactly the same as a dollar in another bank, while a JPMorgan dollar will not be quite the same as a dollar in the attachment.
Another form of digital currency digital currency (CBDC) can offer the best chances of taking control of an international role in the conventional dollar. Almost all central banks already have a digital currency, which constitutes a central element of the national payment system. But only national banks are allowed to use it. Could it be the basis of better international payments?
Trump is an enthusiastic supporter of almost all forms of cryptocurrency, in particular the pieces of memes that he and his family “monetized” so profitable.
The Bank of International establishments (BIS) – The “club” of central bankers – promoted mbridge To explore this use, linking different CBDCs and bypassing current payment items such as Swift and the Dollar. With this potential threat to the pre -eminence of the dollar, the American authorities were naturally INTED ABOUT MBridge And put pressure on the bis to stop his involvement. US President Donald Trump Genius Specifically prevents the development of a Federal Reserve CBDC, which will limit a system based on CBDC because foreign central banks will have no American counterpart.
Trump is an enthusiastic supporter of almost all forms of cryptocurrency, in particular the Corners That he and his family “monetized” so profitable. This enthusiasm goes through stablecoins, where its Genius will provide a kind of official regulatory seal. The law specifically prevents the American federal reserve from publishing a CBDC. This reflects not only the belief that the private sector is the police of all innovation, but also the pressure of the private sector (cryptographic interests are main political donors). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sees the dollar stablecoins as improving the role of the US dollar thanks to this innovation while thwarting any fundamental role for the Chinese CBDC.
For all these countless challenges, the continuous central role of the dollar payment system based on the bank seems insured. The various competitors, including potentially simplified transactions using QR codes, provide more competition on the outgoing system, but its response is greater efficiency and lower cost, rather than decreasing.
And payments are just a function that the dollar facilitates. Once the payment has been received, what do you make with the product? Investing in a renminbi asset integrates you in an uncertain legal framework, forced by capital controls. An obligation in euros can be safe, but cannot correspond to the liquidity of an obligation in dollars. The existing American financial market offers a plethora of investment opportunities, with different liquidity, risk, leverage and due date, refined over time in a competitive environment. It will be difficult to get around or move.
If America approaches its sanctions, or if Trump is trusting the dollar by the incompetence of prejudicial policies or institutions such as the federal reserve, the countries will find working payment methods that will bypass the traditional dollar infrastructure. But they will be awkward: the domination of the banking dollar seems secure in the foreseeable future.
