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Elon Musk is now a prediction market engine.
The Musk XAI announced a partnership on Thursday to join its Grok artificial intelligence chatbot in the Kalshi prediction market service. In June, XAI announced a similar agreement with PolymarketA Kalshi rival.
Kalshi, the company that turned heads with a fact withAi Commercial During the NBA final this year, Grok said will be hosted on its platform and “will provide a useful context on market prices and fluctuations”.
In May, Grok made the headlines when he provided an unsolicited context to users on X on the “white genocide” in South Africa. Earlier this month, Grok congratulated Adolf Hitler in comments on the floods of Texas and spit the anti-Semitism.
“Kalshi’s feelings about the partnership are only excitement,” said a company spokesperson when they were asked if there were concerns about Grok “horrible behavior. “”
“Wisdom of the crowd”
The prediction markets are game platforms which have real-time ratings based on the will of users to bet on the results. They offer propeller bets for real world events.
Those who use the prediction markets frequently refer to the “wisdom of the crowd”. THE Tesla The CEO said these services are “more precise than polls, because real money is at stake”.
Interactive brokers And Robin Also run the prediction markets.
Kalshi CEO, Tarek Mansour, told Heterogeneous In April, these types of platforms are “the best way to predict the future because of this skin in the game aspect. People do not lie when their money is involved”.
In a video announcing the Kalshi-Xai agreement, Grok has been shown by providing a “market summary” of current opportunities for a bet on the issue: “Will Elon Musk create a new political party this year?”
Polymarket and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulate the prediction markets, have not returned a request for comments on XAI’s partnerships with the platforms or any conflict of potential interest with Musk AI presenting information on Musc bets.
The variety of betting options on sites is something to see.
You can bet if there will be a major meteor strike in 2025 – currently a 16%chance, according to Polymarket – and a range of events from divorce of celebrities when when Israel is hitting Syria.
On Monday, 7 million dollars combined bet on Kalshi and Polymarket for the CEO of astronomer Andy by leaving the company after the viral video Coldplay Kiss Cam.
2024 elections
Polymarket broke out on the stage during 2024 elections Between President Donald Trump and the president of the time, Joe Biden. The site continued to attract bets while the president of the time, Kamala Harris, entered the competition.
The platform switched to the favorites between Trump and Harris from August to October, before the chances turned firmly to Trump.
In October, four Polymarket accounts linked to a person bet more than $ 28 million for a Trump victory.
The negotiation volume on the presidential race totaled nearly $ 3.7 billion.
“On Polymarket, it looked like a finished affair, and if you were watching television, you would think it’s the neck and neck,” said Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, on “Squawk Box” by CNBC after the elections.
A poster showing ratings of Paris for the 2024 American presidential election displayed in New York.
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
Polymarket has been prevented from operating in the United States since 2022, when it has paid the CFTC a penalty of 1.4 million dollars to pay the costs, but it is about to open American users.
Earlier this month, the Ministry of Justice and the CFTC abandoned surveys on the company, and Polymarket acquired Exchange QCX derivatives.
“Many people want peace of mind, where they are anxious and they want to know what will happen, Coplan told” Squawk Box “from CNBC on Wednesday.” This is why they connect to the news. This is why they connect to X. and now that there is this other point of data, which is polymarket. “”
Coplan said on Wednesday that Polymarket was “not profitable”.
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