Picks, predictions and odds Craig vs Borralho

Paul Craig UFC 301

Caio Borralho’s unbeaten record in the UFC is one of the many reasons he’s so heavily favored over Paul Craig, but our UFC picks see value in Craig’s tendency to come out on his shield .

May 4, 2024 • 8:33 a.m. ET

• 4 minutes of reading

Paul Craig faces Caio “The Natural” Borralho in the first fight on tonight’s main card for UFC 301 betting.

There is only one spot separating these two in the middleweight rankings, with Borralho at No. 14 and Craig at No. 13. However, there is a huge gap on the UFC odds board with “The Natural” as the -550 favorite and Craig. at +370.

With such lopsided odds, I let you know the best angle to bet with my Craig vs. Borralho picks and predictions for May 4.

Craig vs Borralho Prediction and Picks

Analysis of the fight

Caio Borralho is on a 13-fight winning streak and is 5-0 in the UFC. However, he still doesn’t have a win against a ranked opponent, and that line seems too wide against a veteran like Paul Craig.

Craig has lost three of his last four fights, but this is a guy with 17 fights in the promotion who has shown the ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Craig has scored surprise victories over Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, Nikita Krylov and, most recently, Andre Muniz when he knocked him out in his middleweight debut last summer.

Craig is a worker with sloppy striking and poor offensive wrestling; However, he is massive for this division and is extremely dangerous on his back.

We saw Borralho engage in extended exchanges with Michal Oleksiejczuk, Armen Petrosyan, Makhmud Muradov and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. While Borralho’s fighting and control was on another level than those guys, he will be playing with fire if he uses this game plan against a BJJ specialist like Craig.

Borralho’s superior athleticism and more complete skill set should make him the favorite, but not at -475. This is a dog or pass friendly place if you look at the moneyline.

Best Best Analysis

Borralho hasn’t been a great finisher lately, with seven of his last nine fights going to judges’ cards. That said, he knocked down Abus Magomedov in his last fight and attempted submissions multiple times against Oleksiejczuk and Muradov in his previous two fights. The Natural has power in his hands and a solid submission game, while Craig is a glass cannon.

Craig has been replaced twice and knocked out four times in the UFC, and his chin may be even more compromised now that he’s moving up to 185 pounds. However, he also has a 100% finishing rate himself, with his 17 career wins coming the distance (four by KO/TKO and 13 by submission).

If Craig is able to pull off an upset, he’ll have to do it by stoppage, and if he doesn’t turn things around, there’s a good chance he’ll finish early himself.

Craig vs. Borralho odds

Method of victory Craig Borralho
To win outright +370 -550
Win by KO/TKO +1000 +210
Win by points +1,100 +215
Win by submission +1000 +200
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds from 5-4-2024.

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The story of Craig versus Borralho

Craig Borralho
36 Age 31
6 feet 4 inches Height 6 feet 2 inches
185 pounds Weight 185 pounds
76 inches Reach 75 inches
17-7-1 (4 KOs) Save 15-1 (4 KOs)

Not intended for use in MA.
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