US consumer confidence in May: 102.0 versus 95.9 expected

US consumer confidence in May

  • Before was 97.0 (revised to 97.5)


  • Current situation index 143.1 compared to 142.9 previously
  • Expectations index 74.6 compared to 66.4 previously
  • Hard to get jobs 13.5 compared to 15.5
  • 16.9% of consumers expect their income to increase, up from 16.8% last month
  • Inflation expectations over 12 months 5.4% versus 5.3%

“Confidence improved in May after three straight months of decline,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of the current economic situation was slightly less positive than last month. However, the strength of the job market continued to strengthen consumers’ overall assessment of the current situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May as fewer respondents said jobs were “hard to get,” offsetting a slight decline in the number of people saying jobs were ” many “. Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected future business conditions, job availability and income to deteriorate, which would translate into an increase in the expectations index. Nevertheless, the overall confidence indicator remained within the relatively narrow range in which it has been oscillating for more than two years. »

This is a nice rebound in this ratio after months of deterioration and has led to a rapid recovery in the US dollar. However, much of the dollar buying took place before the data was released, which is indeed curious.

From a broader perspective, here are comments from Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund coverage at Goldman Sachs: “..the U.S. is growing above trend…wages are growing faster than the rest of the world inflation basket, so real disposable income increases. …aside from that, there is a MASSIVE wealth effect from the stock market and the housing market…and all of this adds up to healthy household balance sheets…US consumption is more sustainable than expected think the bears.

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