What to expect from today’s primaries in New York, Colorado and Utah

After House Republicans faced competitive primaries for weeks, it’s now a Democrat who could be in trouble on Tuesday.

New York’s 16th District primary attracted the most ad spending ever for a House primary, with Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman – a member of the progressive “team” and staunch critic of Israel – facing numerous attacks.

The historic spending, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact, includes $14.8 million in ads from the United Democracy Project, a super PAC linked to the U.S.-Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Pro-Israel groups support Bowman’s opponent, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, a centrist who has served in local politics for decades and is an unapologetic supporter of Israel.

And while voters in the district have said they are focused on other issues, like jobs and the environment, the unprecedented spending has made the primary a closely watched proxy fight in the intra-partisan battle broader Democrats that played out around the war between Israel and Hamas during this electoral cycle.

The Bowman-Latimer brawl also attracted other prominent names. Hillary Clinton, a Westchester County resident, supported Latimer, as did former Rep. Mondaire Jones, D-N.Y., a former Bowman ally and member of the Congressional Black Caucus who has since blasted Bowman’s criticism of of Israel.

Jones, whose decision infuriated progressives, would have to win the Democratic nomination in a neighboring swing district for the chance to face freshman Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in the fall. New York’s primaries will also feature matchups in several competitive districts that will be key to the fight for the House.

Meanwhile, Bowman brought in incremental reinforcements over the weekend. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., campaigned with Bowman in southern Westchester County on Friday, and Sanders and neighboring Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., found themselves stumped with Bowman in the Bronx SATURDAY.

“They are spending more money than has ever been spent in American history,” Bowman said at the rally with Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez. “But they represent money. We are the powerful. They represent money; we are numerous. And they won’t stop us. No matter what. We will not be stopped.

In addition to New York, Utah and Colorado will also hold primaries on Tuesday, and South Carolina will hold primary runoffs.

Colorado Blend

Republican Rep. Ken Buck’s decision to resign in March upended this year’s Colorado primary. Voters in Buck’s deep-red 4th District will also choose his replacement Tuesday in a special election.

Republican Greg Lopez, former state director for the Small Business Administration and former mayor of Parker, is favored to win the special election in the 4th District, given the district’s Republican leaning. Former President Donald Trump won by 19 points in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections calculations.

Lopez has run for office several times, including unsuccessfully for governor in 2022 and 2018. He is a staunch conservative and has adopted far-right positions, including not supporting any exceptions to the ban on abortion and casting doubt on the 2020 elections. results.

Lopez is not running for a full term, so he will only serve about six months if he wins on Tuesday. He is competing against Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter.

There will also be a primary Tuesday to select candidates for this fall’s general election in the 4th District. GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert decided to switch districts and run for the seat vacated by Buck, instead of seeking re-election in the 3rd District, which she barely won in 2022. Boebert, who has the Trump’s support, expected to secure the GOP nomination. Tuesday.

Boebert’s decision also led to a crowded Republican primary in the more competitive 3rd District, which Trump won by 9 points in 2020. The race was the target of last-minute spending by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House. GOP leadership, against one of the Republican candidates.

The Congressional Leadership Fund launched a television ad targeting former state Rep. Ron Hanks after Democrats appeared to interfere in the primary to boost him, according to the Colorado Sun, perhaps betting he could be easier to beat in November. Hanks denied the results of the 2020 election and he marched to the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. He also ran unsuccessfully in the 2022 GOP Senate primary.

Democrat Adam Frisch, the former Aspen City Council member who nearly defeated Boebert, has cleared the primary field on his side of the aisle. Frisch also appears to be putting his finger on the scale in the GOP primaries by launching a television ad targeting attorney Jeff Hurd, a top GOP candidate. The spot could damage Hurd’s reputation among conservative voters by suggesting that Hurd’s positions on abortion and on Trump are unclear; Hanks has presented himself as an unapologetic conservative on these issues.

Another Republican exit from the House shook the GOP primary in the deep-red 5th District, where Rep. Doug Lamborn is retiring. Trump endorsed state Republican Party Chairman Dave Williams, while House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and other congressional Republicans backed Jeff Crank, a political consultant and former talk show host. radio.

More tests of Trump’s approval

Utah Republicans are poised to effectively choose who will replace outgoing Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, one of the party’s biggest critics of Trump, next year.

Trump is supporting Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, who also gained support from Utah Republicans at their April convention. Despite Trump’s support, the race is hotly contested between four well-funded candidates. Former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson was the top fundraiser, thanks in part to his $3 million loan to his campaign.

But Rep. John Curtis has been boosted by a wave of outside ad spending, more than $6.6 million, by a group called Conservative Values ​​for Utah and by another, a pro-cryptocurrency super PAC called Defend American Jobs who has been active in other GOPs. primary races across the country. The ads are largely a mix of spots featuring Curtis and others critical of Staggs, who was boosted by $700,000 in ad spending from Protect Freedom PAC, a group aligned with Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. . Jason Walton, a businessman who loaned his campaign $2.5 million, is also running.

The winner of the GOP primary will face Democrat Caroline Gleich in the fall and become the favorite to replace Romney in the red state.

Curtis’ decision to run for Senate opened a primary in the 3rd District. Utah County contractor Case Lawrence and Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird are top fundraisers in the race, which also includes state Sen. Mike Kennedy, the state auditor John Dougall and former state GOP Chairman Stewart Peay.

Trump’s picks are also pending in two other House races — one in a swing seat in Colorado and one in a Republican stronghold in South Carolina.

Trump is supporting state Rep. Gabe Evans, who is running against former state Rep. Janak Joshi in Colorado’s 8th District, where Republicans are seeking to unseat newly minted Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo. She won her first term in 2022 by just 1 percentage point.

And in South Carolina’s 3rd District runoff, Trump is behind Pastor Mark Burns, who hopes to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan. Burns and nurse Sheri Biggs advanced to a runoff after the state’s congressional primary this month, when no candidate won a majority of the vote.

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